Elemental Water
Trade Goods · Elemental · item 7070 · vendor 4s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 246 | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| floor to +10% | 46 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +10% to +30% | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 104 sales out of 302 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 9s | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| −5% 9s 50c | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +0% 10s | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +5% 10s 50c | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +10% 11s | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +20% 12s | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +30% 13s | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 15s | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -7.63 ± 0.99: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.48. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 51 postings (HHI 0.079, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 63% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 10s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 9s | 13s 13c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Superior Poultice First Aid |
1 | 94c |
 Azure Silk Belt Tailoring |
1 | −29s 82c |
 Frost Leather Cloak Leatherworking |
2 | −48s 43c |
 Robe of Power Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Greater Frost Protection Potion Alchemy |
1 | – |
 Edge of Winter Blacksmithing |
2 | – |
| Skycaller's Mail Belt Leatherworking |
8 | – |
 Skycaller's Mail Gauntlets Leatherworking |
4 | – |
 Skycaller's Mail Sabatons Leatherworking |
6 | – |
 Skycaller's Mail Bracers Leatherworking |
4 | – |
 Skycaller's Mail Shoulders Leatherworking |
3 | – |
 Skycaller's Mail Boots Leatherworking |
2 | – |
 Skycaller's Leather Waistguard Leatherworking |
8 | – |
| Skycaller's Leather Gauntlets Leatherworking |
4 | – |
 Skycaller's Leather Boots Leatherworking |
6 | – |
 Skycaller's Leather Bracers Leatherworking |
4 | – |
 Skycaller's Leather Shoulders Leatherworking |
3 | – |
 Skycaller's Leather Shoes Leatherworking |
2 | – |
 Skycaller's Leather Gloves Leatherworking |
2 | – |
 Skycaller's Leather Belt Leatherworking |
1 | – |
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