FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.1 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Perfect Deviate Scale

Trade Goods · Leather · item 6471 · vendor 5s

own demand model

Floor11scheapest 10s 99c

Median11s 90cby quantity

Listed195113 listings

Sold / day177avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	51	92%	92%	92%	92%	92%
floor to +10%	9	56%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+10% to +30%	13	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 53 sales out of 76 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 9s 90c	64%	84%	84%	84%	84%
−5% 10s 45c	60%	81%	81%	81%	81%
+0% 11s	57%	78%	78%	78%	78%
+5% 11s 55c	53%	74%	74%	74%	74%
+10% 12s 10c	50%	71%	71%	71%	71%
+20% 13s 20c	45%	65%	65%	65%	65%
+30% 14s 30c	40%	60%	60%	60%	60%
+50% 16s 50c	32%	50%	50%	50%	50%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.90 ± 1.41: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.83. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at22s 44ceach · +104% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 75c

Chance it sells32%~8.69h on the AH

Expected value12s 54c7s 54c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 13% of listed quantity across 34 postings (HHI 0.064, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 33% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	10s 70c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	10s 70c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	10s 70c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	10s 70c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	10s 70c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	10s	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	9s 99c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	9s 99c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	9s 99c	45s 72c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	9s 99c	45s 72c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Deviate Scale Belt Leatherworking	10	−12s 74c
Deviate Scale Gloves Leatherworking	2	−16s 77c