FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Heavy Silk Bandage

Consumable · Bandages · item 6451 · vendor 4s

own demand model

Floor4scheapest 4s

Median4sby quantity

Listed2,762148 listings

Sold / day1,266avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	264	24%	54%	54%	54%	54%
floor to +10%	99	9%	13%	15%	15%	15%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 128 sales out of 365 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 3s 60c	81%	98%	98%	98%	98%
−5% 3s 80c	43%	74%	74%	74%	74%
+0% 4s	18%	38%	39%	39%	39%
+5% 4s 20c	7%	16%	17%	17%	17%
+10% 4s 40c	3%	7%	7%	7%	7%
+20% 4s 80c	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+30% 5s 20c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 6s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 20.89: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at3s 69ceach · −8% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 60c

Chance it sells91%~2.52h on the AH

Expected value3s 43c−57c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 17 postings (HHI 0.114, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 16% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 23:49	3s 99c	7s	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

First Aid: 2× Silk Cloth 1s 98c

Materials 3s 96c → sells for 3s 80c: −16c per craft

Can craft it: Baharr