FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.1 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Raw Rockscale Cod

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 6362 · vendor 4c

own demand model

Floor7ccheapest 5c

Median25cby quantity

Listed8,780164 listings

Sold / day2,807avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorover +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	116	45%	98%	98%	98%	98%
over +30%	11	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 98 sales out of 131 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 6c	38%	76%	76%	76%	76%
−5% 7c	36%	73%	73%	73%	73%
+0% 7c	34%	71%	71%	71%	71%
+5% 7c	32%	68%	68%	68%	68%
+10% 8c	31%	66%	66%	66%	66%
+20% 8c	28%	61%	61%	61%	61%
+30% 9c	25%	57%	57%	57%	57%
+50% 10c	21%	50%	50%	50%	50%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.42 ± 0.83: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.87. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at12ceach · +71% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells42%~7.78h on the AH

Expected value8c4c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 35% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.195, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 71% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	5c	14c	9
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	4c	5c	3
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	4c	5c	3
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	5c	10c	20
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	5c	10c	20
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	5c	10c	20
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	5c	10c	20
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	5c	10c	20
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	5c	10c	20
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	5c	10c	20

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Rockscale Cod Cooking	1	7c
Specklefin Feast Cooking	3	–