Raw Slitherskin Mackerel
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 6303 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 303 | 44% | 60% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| floor to +10% | 16 | 23% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 27 | 57% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| over +30% | 9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 188 sales out of 355 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 39c | 60% | 78% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| −5% 41c | 57% | 75% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| +0% 43c | 54% | 72% | 74% | 74% | 74% |
| +5% 45c | 52% | 70% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +10% 47c | 49% | 67% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +20% 52c | 45% | 63% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| +30% 56c | 41% | 58% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| +50% 64c | 35% | 51% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.45 ± 0.53: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.87. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 26% of listed quantity across 26 postings (HHI 0.121, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 41% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 44c | 56c | 5 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 43c | 56c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 30c | 42c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 30c | 43c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 30c | 43c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 30c | 44c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 40c | 56c | 10 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 40c | 54c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 38c | 54c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 23:49 | 30c | 54c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Slitherskin Mackerel Cooking |
1 | −15c |
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