Brilliant Smallfish
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 6290 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 94 | 45% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| over +30% | 8 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 43 sales out of 104 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 22c | 44% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| −5% 24c | 42% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +0% 25c | 40% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| +5% 26c | 38% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +10% 28c | 36% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +20% 30c | 33% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| +30% 32c | 31% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| +50% 38c | 26% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.28 ± 0.80: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.88. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 27% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.12, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 92% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 1s 35c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 1s 35c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 25c | 2s 25c | 20 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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