Thick Murloc Scale
Trade Goods · Leather · item 5785 · vendor 5s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 209 | 29% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| floor to +10% | 13 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| over +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 110 sales out of 231 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 50c | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 4s 75c | 56% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +0% 5s | 26% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| +5% 5s 25c | 10% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +10% 5s 50c | 4% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +20% 6s | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +30% 6s 50c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 7s 50c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 40.62: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 31% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.183, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 37% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 5s | 9s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 5s | 9s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 5s | 9s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 5s | 7s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 5s | 7s 50c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 5s | 7s 50c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Thick Murloc Armor Leatherworking |
12 | 11s 8c |
 Murloc Scale Bracers Leatherworking |
16 | −35s 58c |
 Glowing Hyperconductive Scale Coif Leatherworking |
10 | – |
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