Slimy Murloc Scale
Trade Goods · Leather · item 5784 · vendor 75c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 106 | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +10% to +30% | 5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 52 sales out of 115 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 4c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 1s 9c | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| +0% 1s 15c | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +5% 1s 21c | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +10% 1s 27c | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| +20% 1s 38c | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| +30% 1s 50c | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +50% 1s 72c | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.55 ± 1.87: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.65. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 17 postings (HHI 0.118, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 30% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 99c | 1s 24c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 99c | 1s 24c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s | 1s 29c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 99c | 1s 29c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s | 1s 29c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s | 1s 29c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Field Guide Skinning | 2 | 7s 15c |
 Murloc Scale Belt Leatherworking |
8 | 4s 25c |
 Murloc Scale Breastplate Leatherworking |
12 | −3s 94c |
| Murloc Scale Shoes Leatherworking | 4 | – |
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