Tangy Clam Meat
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 5504 · vendor 22c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 858 | 68% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| floor to +10% | 27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +10% to +30% | 188 | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| over +30% | 42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 600 sales out of 1115 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 40c | 70% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| −5% 43c | 58% | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% |
| +0% 45c | 48% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +5% 47c | 38% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +10% 50c | 31% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| +20% 54c | 20% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| +30% 58c | 13% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +50% 68c | 6% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.82 ± 0.38: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.57. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 10% of listed quantity across 78 postings (HHI 0.05, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 46% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 15 Nov 02:49 | 50c | 5s 42c | 1 |
| Sun 15 Nov 02:49 | 49c | 5s 42c | 1 |
| Sun 15 Nov 02:49 | 49c | 65c | 9 |
| Sun 15 Nov 02:49 | 49c | 65c | 9 |
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 50c | 1s | 5 |
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 50c | 1s | 5 |
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 50c | 1s | 5 |
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 50c | 4s 43c | 5 |
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 50c | 4s 43c | 5 |
| Sun 15 Nov 01:49 | 50c | 4s 43c | 5 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Goblin Deviled Clams Cooking |
1 | 6c |
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