Thunder Lizard Tail
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 5470 · vendor 28c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 233 | 80% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| floor to +10% | 130 | 39% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 14 | 23% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 333 sales out of 378 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 92c | 77% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 2s 2c | 67% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| +0% 2s 13c | 57% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +5% 2s 24c | 48% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| +10% 2s 34c | 40% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +20% 2s 56c | 28% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +30% 2s 77c | 20% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +50% 3s 20c | 10% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.22 ± 1.25: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.61. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 33% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.212, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 39% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Crispy Lizard Tail Cooking |
1 | −35c |
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