Scorpid Stinger
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 5466 · vendor 8c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 295 | 40% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| floor to +10% | 12 | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| +10% to +30% | 37 | 3% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| over +30% | 18 | 6% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 148 sales out of 362 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 30c | 33% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| −5% 31c | 32% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| +0% 33c | 30% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +5% 35c | 29% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +10% 36c | 28% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| +20% 40c | 26% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +30% 43c | 24% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +50% 50c | 21% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.02 ± 0.60: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.91. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 27% of listed quantity across 32 postings (HHI 0.159, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 77% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 15 Nov 02:49 | 33c | 44c | 1 |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:49 | 30c | 39c | 14 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 34c | 45c | 14 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 35c | 80c | 9 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 34c | 80c | 9 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 34c | 80c | 9 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 48c | 60c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 47c | 60c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 47c | 60c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 47c | 60c | 4 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Scorpid Surprise Cooking |
1 | 25c |
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