Small Spider Leg
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 5465 · vendor 3c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 213 | 64% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| over +30% | 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 88 sales out of 235 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3c | 80% | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| −5% 3c | 64% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +0% 3c | 49% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| +5% 3c | 36% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| +10% 3c | 26% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| +20% 4c | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| +30% 4c | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +50% 4c | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -8.21 ± 1.04: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.46. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 27% of listed quantity across 27 postings (HHI 0.188, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 59% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3c | 5c | 12 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3c | 4c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3c | 4c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3c | 4c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3c | 4c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 3c | 4c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 3c | 5c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 3c | 5c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 3c | 5c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 3c | 5c | 3 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Kaldorei Spider Kabob Cooking |
1 | 25c |
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