FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Craftsman's Monocle

Armor · Cloth · item 4393 · vendor 26s 32c

own demand model

Floor71s 99ccheapest 71s 99c

Median73sby quantity

Listed4848 listings

Sold / day33avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorover +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	114	28%	50%	50%	50%	50%
over +30%	14	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 33 sales out of 128 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 64s 79c	22%	40%	40%	40%	40%
−5% 68s 39c	21%	38%	38%	38%	38%
+0% 71s 99c	20%	36%	36%	36%	36%
+5% 75s 59c	18%	34%	34%	34%	34%
+10% 79s 19c	18%	32%	32%	32%	32%
+20% 86s 39c	16%	29%	29%	29%	29%
+30% 93s 59c	14%	27%	27%	27%	27%
+50% 1g 7s	12%	23%	23%	23%	23%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.32 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.88. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at1g 79seach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 3s 94c

Chance it sells12%~10.84h on the AH

Expected value69s 93c43s 61c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 23% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.173, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 25% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1
Sat 14 Nov 19:49	45s	84s	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Engineering: 6× Heavy Leather 2s 3c, 2× Citrine 8s 86c

Materials 29s 90c → sells for 68s 39c: 38s 49c per craft