FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Lion Meat

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 3731 · vendor 55c

own demand model

Floor1s 8ccheapest 96c

Median1s 19cby quantity

Listed1,416211 listings

Sold / day443avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	223	37%	39%	39%	39%	39%
floor to +10%	25	59%	59%	59%	59%	59%
+10% to +30%	8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 76 sales out of 259 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 97c	58%	61%	61%	61%	61%
−5% 1s 3c	41%	43%	43%	43%	43%
+0% 1s 8c	27%	29%	29%	29%	29%
+5% 1s 13c	18%	19%	19%	19%	19%
+10% 1s 19c	12%	13%	13%	13%	13%
+20% 1s 30c	5%	6%	6%	6%	6%
+30% 1s 40c	2%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+50% 1s 62c	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -9.64 ± 1.45: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.40. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at99ceach · −8% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 8c

Chance it sells52%~6.4h on the AH

Expected value89c34c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 42 postings (HHI 0.075, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 34% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	1s 8c	1s 50c	6
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	1s 11c	10s 44c	4
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s 20c	1s 59c	10
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s	1s 30c	6
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s	1s 30c	8
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s 30c	1s 66c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1s 30c	1s 66c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Tasty Lion Steak Cooking	2	3s 36c
Hot Lion Chops Cooking	1	−25c