Tender Crocolisk Meat
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 3667 · vendor 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 169 | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
| floor to +10% | 27 | 85% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 177 | 92% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 206 | 45% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 434 sales out of 579 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 15c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 1s 22c | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 1s 28c | 97% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +5% 1s 34c | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% 1s 41c | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +20% 1s 54c | 76% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| +30% 1s 66c | 62% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +50% 1s 92c | 38% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.84 ± 0.33: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.63. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 36% of listed quantity across 9 postings (HHI 0.229, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 49% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 1s | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 99c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 99c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 98c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 98c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 95c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 95c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 94c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 93c | 1s 27c | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 93c | 1s 27c | 5 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Heavy Crocolisk Stew Cooking |
2 | −85c |
 Crocolisk Gumbo Cooking |
1 | – |
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