Spider Ichor
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 3174 · vendor 16c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 338 | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 86 | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +10% to +30% | 202 | 54% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 24 | 0% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 393 sales out of 650 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 15c | 79% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| −5% 16c | 75% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +0% 17c | 72% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +5% 18c | 68% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +10% 19c | 64% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| +20% 20c | 58% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| +30% 22c | 52% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +50% 26c | 42% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.08 ± 0.33: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.82. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 43 postings (HHI 0.103, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 23c | 30c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 23c | 30c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 23c | 30c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 22:49 | 23c | 30c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 18c | 23c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 18c | 23c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 18c | 23c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 18c | 23c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 18c | 23c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 18c | 23c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Blood Sausage Cooking |
1 | 4s 98c |
 Slimy Smoothie Cooking |
1 | 1s 44c |
 Simple Poultice First Aid |
1 | −9c |
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