FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Crocolisk Meat

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 2924 · vendor 16c

own demand model

Floor24ccheapest 24c

Median40cby quantity

Listed876249 listings

Sold / day230avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	154	36%	36%	36%	36%	36%
floor to +10%	15	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 47 sales out of 174 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 22c	28%	28%	28%	28%	28%
−5% 23c	26%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+0% 24c	24%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+5% 25c	23%	23%	23%	23%	23%
+10% 26c	21%	21%	21%	21%	21%
+20% 29c	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%
+30% 31c	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%
+50% 36c	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.60 ± 1.09: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.86. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at36ceach · +50% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 2c

Chance it sells13%~10.57h on the AH

Expected value20c4c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 14% of listed quantity across 40 postings (HHI 0.067, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 42% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	20c	25c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Crocolisk Steak Cooking	1	–