Expert Campfire Kit
Consumable · Other · item 279974
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 0 sales out of 5 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 22g 50s | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| −5% 23g 75s | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +0% 25g | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +5% 26g 25s | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +10% 27g 50s | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +20% 30g | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +30% 32g 50s | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +50% 37g 50s | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (pooled across the house: this item has fewer than 20 tracked sales). Price effect β = -0.63 ± 0.08: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.94. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 33% of listed quantity across 3 postings (HHI 0.333, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 33% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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