Bottle of Dalaran Noir
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 2723 · vendor 12c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 59 | 30% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 23 sales out of 60 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 58c | 40% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| −5% 61c | 38% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| +0% 64c | 37% | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| +5% 67c | 35% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| +10% 70c | 34% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +20% 77c | 32% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
| +30% 83c | 30% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| +50% 96c | 26% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.02 ± 2.85: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.91. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 33% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.196, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 51% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Simple Poultice First Aid |
1 | −11c |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.