FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Boar Ribs

Trade Goods · Cooking · item 2677 · vendor 15c

own demand model

Floor2s 96ccheapest 2s 55c

Median3s 68cby quantity

Listed1,301340 listings

Sold / day602avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	408	28%	30%	30%	30%	30%
floor to +10%	117	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 109 sales out of 530 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 66c	22%	23%	23%	23%	23%
−5% 2s 81c	22%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+0% 2s 96c	23%	25%	25%	25%	25%
+5% 3s 11c	24%	25%	25%	25%	25%
+10% 3s 26c	24%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+20% 3s 55c	25%	27%	27%	27%	27%
+30% 3s 85c	27%	29%	29%	29%	29%
+50% 4s 44c	29%	31%	31%	31%	31%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.65 ± 0.49: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.06. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at7s 40ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 2c

Chance it sells40%~7.71h on the AH

Expected value4s 27c4s 12c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 10% of listed quantity across 47 postings (HHI 0.048, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 17% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	2s 90c	2g 90s	5
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	2s 90c	2g 90s	5
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 90c	9s 77c	3
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 88c	9s 77c	3
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 88c	9s 77c	3
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 88c	9s 77c	3
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 88c	9s 77c	3
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 80c	9s 77c	3
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 80c	9s 77c	3
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	3s 77c	9s 77c	3

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Dry Pork Ribs Cooking	1	−2s 26c
Succulent Pork Ribs Cooking	2	–