Craftsman's Writ: Greater Fire Protection Potion
Consumable · Other · item 264118 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 33 | 4% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 2 sales out of 38 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 35% of listed quantity across 7 postings (HHI 0.217, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 35% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 74s 99c | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 74s 99c | 3g 99s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1g 30s | 3g 99s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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