Craftsman's Writ: Big Bronze Knife
Consumable · Other · item 264027 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 123 | 2% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| floor to +10% | 5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 11 sales out of 150 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 24 postings (HHI 0.086, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 27% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 1g | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 74s 91c | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 74s 91c | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 70s | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 70s | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 70s | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 67s | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 67s | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 67s | 1g 75s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 67s | 1g 75s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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