Sealed Expert's Writ
Consumable · Other · item 262889
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 159 | 89% | 89% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| floor to +10% | 6 | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 40 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| over +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 59 sales out of 212 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 22s 46c | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 23s 71c | 76% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +0% 24s 96c | 54% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| +5% 26s 21c | 36% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| +10% 27s 46c | 22% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| +20% 29s 95c | 9% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| +30% 32s 45c | 4% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| +50% 37s 44c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -11.69 ± 2.37: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.33. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 59 postings (HHI 0.081, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 40% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 27s 96c | 40s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 27s 96c | 40s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 31s | 39s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30s | 39s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 29s 99c | 39s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 29s 99c | 39s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 29s 77c | 39s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 29s 77c | 39s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 29s 77c | 39s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 28s 49c | 39s 99c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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