FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Swollen Venom Sac

Trade Goods · Other · item 255645 · vendor 3s 70c

own demand model

Floor5s 87ccheapest 5s 86c

Median7s 31cby quantity

Listed155124 listings

Sold / day57avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	71	37%	76%	76%	76%	76%
floor to +10%	15	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 43 sales out of 86 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 5s 28c	22%	71%	71%	71%	71%
−5% 5s 58c	39%	91%	91%	91%	91%
+0% 5s 87c	60%	99%	99%	99%	99%
+5% 6s 16c	80%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+10% 6s 46c	94%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+20% 7s 4c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+30% 7s 63c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
+50% 8s 80c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 12.03 ± 2.27: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 3.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at14s 67ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 55c

Chance it sells100%~1.25h on the AH

Expected value13s 92c10s 22c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 37% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.182, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 35% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Potent Anti-Venom First Aid	1	2s 50c