Fel Leather
Trade Goods · Leather · item 248825 · vendor 7s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 438 | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| floor to +10% | 26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +10% to +30% | 24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 45 sales out of 490 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 10s 80c | 14% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| −5% 11s 40c | 13% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| +0% 12s | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| +5% 12s 60c | 11% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| +10% 13s 20c | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +20% 14s 40c | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| +30% 15s 60c | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +50% 18s | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.69 ± 1.53: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.85. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 30 postings (HHI 0.088, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 40% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Pristine Scorpid Leggings Leatherworking |
20 | 238g |
 Red Dragonscale Leggings Leatherworking |
20 | 132g |
 Black Dragonscale Helm Leatherworking |
20 | 82g 70s |
 Timbermaw Tunic Leatherworking |
20 | 62g 98s |
 Ironfeather Leggings Leatherworking |
20 | 50g 85s |
 Warbear Helm Leatherworking |
20 | 50g 68s |
 Living Crown Leatherworking |
20 | 29g 64s |
| Blue Dragonscale Helm Leatherworking |
20 | – |
 Dawn Armor Leatherworking |
20 | – |
| Grovekeeper Stompers Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Grips Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Shoulderpads Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Trousers Leatherworking | 24 | – |
| Grovekeeper Sandals Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Mitts Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Mantle Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Kilt Leatherworking | 24 | – |
| Grovekeeper Boots Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Handguards Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Pauldrons Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Legguards Leatherworking | 24 | – |
| Grovekeeper Treads Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Gauntlets Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Spaulders Leatherworking | 18 | – |
| Grovekeeper Leggings Leatherworking | 24 | – |
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