Heavy Thorium Ore
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 248815 · vendor 3s 75c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 273 | 10% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| floor to +10% | 10 | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 41 sales out of 286 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 17s 89c | 12% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| −5% 18s 89c | 5% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +0% 19s 88c | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +5% 20s 87c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +10% 21s 87c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +20% 23s 86c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +30% 25s 84c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 29s 82c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -16.83 ± 2.46: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.20. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 38% of listed quantity across 17 postings (HHI 0.2, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 55% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 19s 90c | 25s 99c | 13 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Smelt Heavy Thorium Mining |
1 | 33s 26c |
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