Waylaid Crate: Journeyman Ingots
Consumable · Other · item 248706
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 611 | 7% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| +10% to +30% | 93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 270 sales out of 710 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 7s 79c | 5% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| −5% 8s 23c | 4% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +0% 8s 66c | 3% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +5% 9s 9c | 2% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| +10% 9s 53c | 2% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| +20% 10s 39c | 1% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +30% 11s 26c | 1% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +50% 12s 99c | 0% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.06 ± 0.64: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.62. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 13% of listed quantity across 65 postings (HHI 0.043, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 37% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 9s | 12s 24c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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