FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Waylaid Crate: Expert Textiles

Consumable · Other · item 248693

own demand model

Floor3s 19ccheapest 2s 99c

Median3s 80cby quantity

Listed549327 listings

Sold / day438avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	199	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%
floor to +10%	59	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
over +30%	199	41%	41%	41%	41%	41%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 100 sales out of 459 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 87c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
−5% 3s 3c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+0% 3s 19c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+5% 3s 35c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+10% 3s 51c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+20% 3s 83c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+30% 4s 15c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+50% 4s 78c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.03 ± 0.29: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.00. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at7s 97ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells34%~8.4h on the AH

Expected value4s 29c4s 29c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 31 postings (HHI 0.094, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 38% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1
Sat 14 Nov 16:49	3s 83c	7s 38c	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.