FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Light Armor Kit

Consumable · Permanent · item 2304 · vendor 15c

no demand model yet

Floor15ccheapest 15c

Median15cby quantity

Listed3,181277 listings

Sold / day264avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorover +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	152	1%	18%	18%	18%	18%
over +30%	6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 15 sales out of 164 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 45% of listed quantity across 24 postings (HHI 0.246, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 51% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15c	50c	4
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	15c	40s 15c	10

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 1× Light Leather 67c

Materials 67c → sells for 14c: −53c per craft

Can craft it: Baharr, John, Nethiri