Scroll of Strength II
Consumable · Scrolls · item 2289 · vendor 87c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 274 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 22 sales out of 276 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 70c | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| −5% 3s 90c | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| +0% 4s 11c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +5% 4s 32c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +10% 4s 52c | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +20% 4s 93c | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +30% 5s 34c | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +50% 6s 16c | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 4.88 ± 2.21: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.59. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 13% of listed quantity across 25 postings (HHI 0.073, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 34% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 4s 40c | 5s 53c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Libram of Invocation Enchanting |
4 | – |
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