Gooey Spider Leg
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 2251 · vendor 12c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 198 | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| floor to +10% | 296 | 14% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +10% to +30% | 27 | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 179 sales out of 525 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 20c | 58% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| −5% 21c | 47% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| +0% 22c | 38% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +5% 23c | 30% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +10% 24c | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +20% 26c | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +30% 29c | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +50% 33c | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.65 ± 0.75: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.58. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 25 postings (HHI 0.129, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 58% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 23c | 29c | 9 |
| Sat 14 Nov 20:49 | 23c | 29c | 9 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 22c | 36c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 17c | 22c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 17c | 22c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 17c | 22c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 17c | 22c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 17c | 22c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 18c | 23c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 22c | 1s 14c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Gooey Spider Cake Cooking |
2 | – |
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