Sweet Nectar
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 1708 · vendor 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 77 | 47% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 77 | 70% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 136 sales out of 193 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 79c | 86% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| −5% 1s 89c | 71% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +0% 1s 99c | 55% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
| +5% 2s 9c | 41% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 74% |
| +10% 2s 19c | 30% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| +20% 2s 39c | 16% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +30% 2s 59c | 8% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +50% 2s 98c | 2% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -8.46 ± 2.13: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.45. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 43% of listed quantity across 4 postings (HHI 0.348, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 43% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Triage Tea Cooking |
1 | 7s 5c |
 Calcified Smoothie Cooking |
1 | 3s 42c |
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