Moonberry Juice
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 1645 · vendor 1s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 81 | 63% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 7 | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 63 sales out of 88 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 35c | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 3s 53c | 71% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +0% 3s 72c | 49% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +5% 3s 91c | 31% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +10% 4s 9c | 19% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +20% 4s 46c | 7% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +30% 4s 84c | 3% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +50% 5s 58c | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -12.16 ± 3.04: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.31. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 23% of listed quantity across 20 postings (HHI 0.123, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 35% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Sunny Tea Cooking |
1 | 17s 50c |
 Spicy Smoothie Cooking |
1 | −4s 7c |
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