Chimera Leather
Trade Goods · Leather · item 15423 · vendor 5s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 120 | 22% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +10% to +30% | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 34 sales out of 129 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 9s 97c | 32% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| −5% 10s 53c | 12% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| +0% 11s 8c | 5% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +5% 11s 63c | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +10% 12s 19c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +20% 13s 30c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +30% 14s 40c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 16s 62c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 5.23: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 17% of listed quantity across 16 postings (HHI 0.117, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 26% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Chimeric Boots Leatherworking |
8 | 2g 32s |
 Chimeric Gloves Leatherworking |
6 | – |
 Chimeric Leggings Leatherworking |
8 | – |
 Chimeric Vest Leatherworking |
10 | – |
 Paranoia Mantle Leatherworking |
8 | – |
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