Warbear Leather
Trade Goods · Leather · item 15419 · vendor 6s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 55 | 48% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 41 | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 60 sales out of 97 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 58s 50c | 64% | 89% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| −5% 61s 75c | 58% | 85% | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| +0% 65s | 52% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +5% 68s 25c | 48% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| +10% 71s 50c | 43% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| +20% 78s | 36% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| +30% 84s 50c | 30% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
| +50% 97s 50c | 21% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.86 ± 1.00: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.76. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 16 postings (HHI 0.11, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 50s | 64s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 50s | 64s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 50s | 64s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 50s | 64s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Warbear Woolies Leatherworking |
14 | 7g 5s |
 Warbear Harness Leatherworking |
12 | 5g 91s |
 Warbear Helm Leatherworking |
20 | – |
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