Green Dragonscale
Trade Goods · Leather · item 15412 · vendor 5s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 108 | 35% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| floor to +10% | 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 69 sales out of 118 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 4s 75c | 39% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| −5% 5s 2c | 37% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| +0% 5s 28c | 35% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +5% 5s 54c | 33% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +10% 5s 81c | 31% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +20% 6s 34c | 28% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| +30% 6s 86c | 26% | 61% | 61% | 61% | 61% |
| +50% 7s 92c | 22% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.40 ± 3.21: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.88. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 27% of listed quantity across 27 postings (HHI 0.111, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 40% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Green Dragonscale Gauntlets Leatherworking |
30 | 5g 47s |
 Green Dragonscale Breastplate Leatherworking |
25 | 3g 46s |
 Green Dragonscale Leggings Leatherworking |
25 | 3g 7s |
 Wailing Chain Mantle Leatherworking |
8 | – |
| Screaming Chain Pauldrons Leatherworking |
5 | – |
 Living Green Dragonscale Gauntlets Leatherworking |
25 | – |
 Living Green Dragonscale Breastplate Leatherworking |
25 | – |
 Living Green Dragonscale Leggings Leatherworking |
25 | – |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.