Murloc Fin
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 1468 · vendor 28c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 74 | 74% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 11 | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 74 sales out of 88 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 32c | 63% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| −5% 33c | 60% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +0% 35c | 57% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| +5% 37c | 55% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +10% 38c | 53% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| +20% 42c | 48% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| +30% 46c | 45% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| +50% 52c | 39% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.39 ± 1.86: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.88. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 17% of listed quantity across 19 postings (HHI 0.108, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 52% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 31c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 30c | 41c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Mrrggl Smrrthle Cooking |
1 | 1s 95c |
 Murloc Fin Soup Cooking |
2 | 46c |
 Clever Poultice First Aid |
1 | – |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.