Large Brilliant Shard
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 14344 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 142 | 30% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
| floor to +10% | 23 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 53 sales out of 168 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2g 43s | 59% | 87% | 87% | 87% | 87% |
| −5% 2g 57s | 36% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| +0% 2g 70s | 21% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| +5% 2g 84s | 12% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +10% 2g 97s | 7% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| +20% 3g 25s | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| +30% 3g 52s | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +50% 4g 6s | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -12.80 ± 3.78: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.30. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.1, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 14% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 81s | 15g 45s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 2g 80s | 15g 45s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Arcane Forge Enchanting |
2 | 7g 57s |
 Big Bag of Enchantment Tailoring |
4 | −1g 66s |
 Bottomless Bag Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Runed Arcanite Rod Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Belt of the Archmage Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Brilliant Wizard Oil Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Brilliant Mana Oil Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Bottomless Bag Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Embroidered Belt of the Archmage Tailoring |
6 | – |
 Magnificent Trollshine Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Enchanted Stopwatch Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Idol of the Dream Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Libram of Holy Alacrity Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Totem of Thunder Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Brilliant Wand Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Bottomless Reagent Bag Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Gnomish Poultryizer Engineering |
2 | – |
 Torch of Light Enchanting |
6 | – |
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