FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Raw Winter Squid

Consumable · Food & Drink · item 13755 · vendor 7c

own demand model

Floor4s 44ccheapest 3s 50c

Median5s 94cby quantity

Listed1,49681 listings

Sold / day987avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	126	32%	35%	35%	35%	35%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 42 sales out of 134 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 4s	36%	40%	40%	40%	40%
−5% 4s 22c	36%	40%	40%	40%	40%
+0% 4s 44c	36%	40%	40%	40%	40%
+5% 4s 66c	37%	41%	41%	41%	41%
+10% 4s 88c	37%	41%	41%	41%	41%
+20% 5s 33c	38%	42%	42%	42%	42%
+30% 5s 77c	39%	43%	43%	43%	43%
+50% 6s 66c	40%	44%	44%	44%	44%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.28 ± 1.42: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.03. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at11s 10ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1c

Chance it sells49%~6.77h on the AH

Expected value7s 3c6s 96c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 33 postings (HHI 0.084, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 34% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Grilled Squid Cooking	1	3s 6c