Black Lotus
Trade Goods · Herb · item 13468 · vendor 10s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 79 | 8% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| floor to +10% | 5 | 0% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 8 sales out of 84 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 30% of listed quantity across 18 postings (HHI 0.169, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 30% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Flask of Petrification Alchemy |
1 | 44g 69s |
 Flask of the Titans Alchemy |
1 | 27g 54s |
 Flask of Supreme Power Alchemy |
1 | 24g 30s |
 Alchemist's Stone Alchemy |
4 | – |
 Flask of Distilled Wisdom Alchemy |
1 | – |
 Flask of Chromatic Resistance Alchemy |
1 | – |
 Gurubashi Mojo Madness Alchemy |
1 | – |
 Satchel of Cenarius Tailoring |
1 | – |
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