Meaty Bat Wing
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 12223 · vendor 4c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 38 | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| +10% to +30% | 27 | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 37 sales out of 68 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 88c | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| −5% 93c | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +0% 98c | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +5% 1s 3c | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +10% 1s 8c | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +20% 1s 18c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +30% 1s 27c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +50% 1s 47c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 8.19 ± 2.00: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 2.18. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 33% of listed quantity across 5 postings (HHI 0.226, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 33% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 80c | 1s | 12 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 1s | 1s 30c | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Bat Hachee Cooking | 3 | 86s 35c |
 Crispy Bat Wing Cooking |
1 | 14c |
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