Giant Egg
Trade Goods · Cooking · item 12207 · vendor 1s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 261 | 13% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| over +30% | 81 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 38 sales out of 344 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 14s 48c | 13% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| −5% 15s 29c | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +0% 16s 9c | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +5% 16s 89c | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +10% 17s 70c | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| +20% 19s 31c | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +30% 20s 92c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +50% 24s 14c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -6.76 ± 2.15: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.53. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 15% of listed quantity across 30 postings (HHI 0.079, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 47% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 16s 9c | 21s 13c | 6 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 14s | 18s 98c | 20 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 15s | 18s 98c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 15s | 18s 98c | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 14s | 18s 99c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 14s | 18s 99c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 13s 98c | 18s 99c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 13s 97c | 18s 99c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 13s 97c | 18s 99c | 7 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 15s | 18s 99c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Monster Omelet Cooking |
1 | – |
 Sunrise Omelette Cooking |
2 | – |
 Giant Scrambled Eggs Cooking |
2 | – |
| Cleansing Stew Cooking | 1 | – |
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