Melon Juice
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 1205 · vendor 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 40 | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| floor to +10% | 8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| +10% to +30% | 8 | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 13 sales out of 57 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 33% of listed quantity across 11 postings (HHI 0.21, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 44% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Root Tea Cooking | 1 | 2s 65c |
| Mrrggl Smrrthle Cooking | 1 | 1s 96c |
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