Cerulean Talisman
Armor · Miscellaneous · item 12019 · vendor 42s 20c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 23 | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| floor to +10% | 14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +10% to +30% | 36 | 15% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| over +30% | 74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 10 sales out of 147 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 4% of listed quantity across 96 postings (HHI 0.015, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 23% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 2g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 2g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 96s 98c | 1g 47s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
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