FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Yellow Power Crystal

Quest · Quest · item 11188

own demand model

Floor2s 45ccheapest 2s 45c

Median2s 53cby quantity

Listed38667 listings

Sold / day516avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	103	27%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+10% to +30%	15	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 27 sales out of 121 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 20c	24%	29%	29%	29%	29%
−5% 2s 33c	25%	30%	30%	30%	30%
+0% 2s 45c	26%	31%	31%	31%	31%
+5% 2s 57c	27%	32%	32%	32%	32%
+10% 2s 70c	28%	34%	34%	34%	34%
+20% 2s 94c	30%	35%	35%	35%	35%
+30% 3s 18c	31%	37%	37%	37%	37%
+50% 3s 68c	34%	41%	41%	41%	41%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.81 ± 0.88: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.08. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at6s 12ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells55%~6.18h on the AH

Expected value4s 10c4s 10c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 20 postings (HHI 0.113, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 36% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 11c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 11c	8
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 11c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 11c	2
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 11c	8
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 11c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 11c	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	2s 12c	3s 12c	2

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Thorium Helm Blacksmithing	4	−2g 81s
Thorium Armor Blacksmithing	4	–