Red Power Crystal
Quest · Quest · item 11186
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 73 | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| over +30% | 35 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 22 sales out of 108 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 16s 39c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 17s 30c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 18s 21c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +5% 19s 12c | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| +10% 20s 3c | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +20% 21s 85c | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% | 91% |
| +30% 23s 67c | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| +50% 27s 32c | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.77 ± 2.16: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.63. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 50% of listed quantity across 8 postings (HHI 0.317, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 37% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 49c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 5s 79c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 98c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 49c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 5s 79c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 98c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 49c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 5s 79c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 4s 98c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 8s 49c | 20s | 2 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Thorium Belt Blacksmithing |
4 | −2g 23s |
 Thorium Leggings Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
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