Large Radiant Shard
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11178 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 13 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 41 | 54% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 41 sales out of 77 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2g 23s | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 2g 35s | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 2g 48s | 72% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +5% 2g 60s | 45% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +10% 2g 72s | 25% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +20% 2g 97s | 7% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +30% 3g 22s | 2% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| +50% 3g 72s | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -15.84 ± 6.87: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.22. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 34% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.239, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 56% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 70s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 70s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 70s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 70s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 70s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 70s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 69s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 69s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 69s | 2g 48s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 19:49 | 1g 69s | 2g 48s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Talons of Wrath Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Libram of Invocation Enchanting |
3 | – |
 Totem of Ancestral Protection Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Radiant Staff Enchanting |
6 | – |
 Dreamstaff Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Truesilver Conduit Enchanting |
3 | – |
 Radiant Slippers Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Radiant Handwraps Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Radiant Cord Tailoring |
12 | – |
 Netherlight Shoulders Tailoring |
8 | – |
 Netherlight Cuffs Tailoring |
10 | – |
 Radiant Waistcord Tailoring |
12 | – |
 Radiant Gloves Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Radiant Sandals Tailoring |
14 | – |
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