Greater Nether Essence
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11175 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 85 | 16% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| floor to +10% | 5 | 20% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +10% to +30% | 15 | 33% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 29 sales out of 105 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 95s 40c | 23% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| −5% 1g | 23% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| +0% 1g 6s | 23% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +5% 1g 11s | 23% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +10% 1g 16s | 23% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| +20% 1g 27s | 22% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| +30% 1g 37s | 22% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| +50% 1g 59s | 22% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.16 ± 2.72: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.99. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.085, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 30% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Compact Critter Carrier Engineering |
2 | 16s 70c |
 Talons of Wrath Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Libram of Invocation Enchanting |
3 | – |
 Totem of Ancestral Protection Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Radiant Staff Enchanting |
4 | – |
 Dreamstaff Enchanting |
6 | – |
 Truesilver Conduit Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Twisting Essence Jar Enchanting |
12 | – |
 Nethergeld Shoulders Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Netherfroth Shoulders Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Netherflame Shoulders Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Netherpearl Shoulders Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Nethershine Shoulders Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Netherlight Shoulders Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Nethergeld Cuffs Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Netherfroth Cuffs Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Netherflame Cuffs Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Netherpearl Cuffs Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Nethershine Cuffs Tailoring |
4 | – |
 Netherlight Cuffs Tailoring |
4 | – |
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