Lesser Nether Essence
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11174 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 141 | 35% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| floor to +10% | 37 | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 58 sales out of 180 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 30s 55c | 50% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| −5% 32s 24c | 30% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| +0% 33s 94c | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +5% 35s 64c | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +10% 37s 33c | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +20% 40s 73c | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +30% 44s 12c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 50s 91c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -12.46 ± 2.29: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.31. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 16% of listed quantity across 34 postings (HHI 0.08, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 25% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 34s 39c | 44s 98c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 34s 39c | 44s 98c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 34s 32c | 44s 98c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 35s 69c | 45s 38c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Dreambough Wand Enchanting |
2 | 2g 38s |
 Twisted Nether Wand Enchanting |
1 | 77s 12c |
 Arcane Salvager Enchanting |
1 | 11s 28c |
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