Greater Astral Essence
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11082 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 35 | 62% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 38 | 58% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 56 sales out of 77 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 13s | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 13s 72c | 84% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 14s 44c | 51% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +5% 15s 16c | 25% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +10% 15s 88c | 12% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +20% 17s 33c | 2% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +30% 18s 77c | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +50% 21s 66c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -18.30 ± 8.92: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.17. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 38% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.167, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 95% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 15s 20c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 15s 14c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 14s 18c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 13s 54c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 13s 46c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 13s 46c | 20s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 13s 46c | 20s | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Runed Golden Rod Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Glimmering Staff Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Soulstaff Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Orb of Mystic Insight Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Orb of Souls Enchanting |
2 | – |
 Pristine Circlet Tailoring |
2 | – |
| Silky Circlet Tailoring |
2 | – |
| Flame Circlet Tailoring |
2 | – |
| Shadow Circlet Tailoring |
2 | – |
| Pearly Circlet Tailoring |
2 | – |
| Shining Circlet Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Pristine Gown Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Silky Gown Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Flame Gown Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Shadow Gown Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Pearly Gown Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Shining Gown Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Pristine Leggings Tailoring |
3 | – |
 Silky Leggings Tailoring |
3 | – |
 Flame Leggings Tailoring |
3 | – |
 Shadow Leggings Tailoring |
3 | – |
 Pearly Leggings Tailoring |
3 | – |
 Shining Leggings Tailoring |
3 | – |
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